The Bitcoin halving event is considered one of the most critical occurrences in the blockchain world due to its significant impact on the crypto market. It has historically played a crucial role in determining when the crypto bull market starts and how long it lasts. While there have been some minor variations in how each bull market is triggered, pre-halving data from previous years suggests that there is a consistent pattern to follow.
Bitcoin’s Historical Trend Continues
Throughout the year, Bitcoin has deviated from many historical trends, leading to speculations that the upcoming bull market may not follow the established pattern. However, current market data indicates that these speculations might be incorrect.
A pseudonymous crypto analyst, @stockmoneyL, recently shared a chart on Twitter presenting the argument that Bitcoin could indeed adhere to previous bull market trends. The chart illustrates that the number of days between the bottom of the bear market and the next halving event has consistently adhered to a reasonably tight timeline.
According to the chart’s data, if Bitcoin continues to follow this pattern, the bull market is likely to commence in 2024. With 532 days between the 2022 market bottom and the next halving, it aligns with the average of 530 days seen between market cycles, which has often heralded the start of bull markets.
Potential Delay in Bull Market Start
If this historical trend holds true in the current instance, it would invalidate the expectations of a bull market starting in 2023. Instead, it would push the commencement of the bull market to the middle of 2024, in line with previous bull markets that began after the halving event.
The Bull Market’s Potential Height
During the past few bull markets, the price of Bitcoin has consistently surpassed its previous all-time high by a significant margin. For instance, in the 2017-2018 bull market, the digital asset’s price reached an all-time high of $19,000, which, though substantial at the time, was easily eclipsed in the subsequent ATH.
In the peak of the last bull market in 2021, the price of Bitcoin soared to $69,000, more than triple its previous all-time high. This pattern has been a consistent feature of all bull markets, leading to speculations that if history repeats itself, the price of BTC could reach $150,000 in the next bull market.
Timing the Next All-Time High
The exact timeframe for reaching this new all-time high has varied depending on different forecasts. However, analyzing Bitcoin’s previous all-time high peaks reveals that they usually occur about a year after the halving and the beginning of the bull market. Applying this trend, the new all-time high for Bitcoin is projected to occur in 2025.
In conclusion, historical data and pre-halving patterns suggest that the crypto bull market is not likely to start in 2023 as many had expected. Instead, it is more probable to begin in 2024, and if past trends hold, Bitcoin could potentially reach a new all-time high of $150,000 in the year 2025. As always, the cryptocurrency market is subject to uncertainties, but understanding these historical trends can provide valuable insights for investors and enthusiasts alike.
